O P I N I O N
THE SOAPBOX
Stand up. Speak up. It’s your turn.
Not unlike millions of Americans throughout our country I have been, shall we say, obsessing over the wild ride known as the presidential election cycle. I have taken a particular interest in the polls for the first time, with the hope of being able to interpret the numbers so I could see who was winning, or going to win.
Initially, and much to my chagrin, the polls have been, especially since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden at the top of the democratic ticket, too close to determine a clear winner. With the numbers mostly staying within the margin of error, which is derived using the standard deviation of the data’s variables, it seems to be too close to call.
The media on both sides has certainly enjoyed the ambiguity the polls present, because they don’t have to make the claim that one candidate or the other is clearly winning, offering them the chance to look like fools when they are wrong (again).
So the months have passed and I’ve continued to pour through the details of an uncountable number of polls. Then yesterday I finally asked myself the question that would lead me to who the winner is going to be when I saw another poll that illuminated the gender gap, that is the disproportionate amount of women voting for Harris and the disproportionate amount of men voting for Trump. The report stated that Harris was ahead with likely women voters by a margin of 21 points. (Percentage points) Trump was ahead with likely men voters by 12 points. Hearing this 9 point disparity caused me to ask the question no one is talking about.
Who typically votes more, men or women?
The answer since 1980 is clear, women do by about 3%. Mind you, the elections back to 1980 never involved a time when women’s reproductive rights were on the line as they are today, so in fact, this year may see an even wider margin favoring a higher turnout of women.
But let’s just say we use 3%; the percentage women surpassed men by in the 2020 election.
I started to do the math. assuming 180 million voters.
***I didn’t even look it up, but I believe there were 155 million in 2020, so I sort of arbitrarily chose 180 million based on the increased number of eligible voters and the anticipated higher than normal turnout I expect. (but the 180 million figure is almost irrelevant.)***
Anyway… If women vote 3% more of the time that means that they constitute 51.5% of voters vs 48.5% for men.
A little basic math shows that of the 87,300,000 men that will vote, 48,000,000 will vote for Donald Trump, 37,500,000 will vote for Harris, making Donald Trump’s lead among men voters come out to approximately 10,500,000 votes in his favor.
Now for the women; 92,700,000 of them will vote. Using the 21 point advantage Harris has this means that 53,700,000 women will vote for Harris, 34,300,000 will vote for Trump giving Harris 19,400,000 more votes from women overall.
Based on these figures Harris is in position to receive a net of 9,900,000 more votes nationwide which equates to 5.5% more of the total 180,000,000 voters. And at 5.5%, unless you’re going to tell me that there are less women in the battleground states than the percentage we would expect, Harris wins the election with ease.
You heard it here first.
Another prediction- Half of you will vehemently disagree!
November 5th, vote!
Beg to differ? Agree to disagree? Thoughtful prose on topics of interest are welcome. Send your submissions to publisher@inklink.news, subject line The Soapbox.
David, a professorial musician and former financial planner, has written a number of published articles ranging in topics from tax incentives available to artists, assessing the origins of addiction, and socialism. David has also written a number of plays and screenplays which focus on substance abuse and mental illness, with the hope of making the public aware that the stigmatization of those that are suffering serves only to keep people sick. David is proud to have written his first musical, A Levittown Christmas Carol, which was first produced last year.
